Ethermeter
Ethereum outlook
A weather forecast for Ether: not a price target, but what happened all the other times Ether stood where it stands today. As of 14 November 2026.
The next two years
PriceMiddle outcomeMiddle half9 in 10Bottom
By horizon
| In | Higher than today | Middle half | 9 in 10 | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 62% | $1,494 – $2,682 | $1,088 – $3,328 | 313 |
| 6 months | 72% | $1,733 – $3,183 | $1,143 – $6,151 | 260 |
| 12 months | 72% | $1,679 – $9,136 | $1,176 – $15,121 | 260 |
| 24 months | 100% | $8,576 – $18,531 | $4,551 – $25,555 | 260 |
Outcomes come from 316 past days within about ±12% of today’s distance from fair value (position 24 on a scale from 0 = bottom to 100 = top). Recomputed every day.
The same spot in earlier periods
| Date | Price | 12 months later | Deepest drop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2026 | $1,928 | not yet | −8.3% |
| 3 Jun 2026 | $1,811 | not yet | −14% |
| 21 Sep 2020 | $340 | +713% | −5.7% |
| 30 May 2020 | $244 | +879% | −9.5% |
| 5 Feb 2020 | $204 | +683% | −46% |
| 14 Aug 2019 | $186 | +128% | −41% |
| 22 Nov 2018 | $123 | +22% | −33% |
| 3 Mar 2017 | $20 | +4,241% | −15% |
| 7 Oct 2016 | $13 | +2,350% | −47% |
| 2 Aug 2016 | $8.78 | +2,382% | −23% |
The first day of each period when Ether stood about where it stands now. “Deepest drop first” is the lowest daily close in the following 12 months, compared with the price on that date. The table shows raw price changes; early years grew much faster than a larger Ether can today, which the ranges above account for and this table does not.
How it works
Every day since May 2016 gets a position between the bottom and the top line. The days closest to today’s position are followed for up to two years. Their moves relative to fair value are then applied to today, along today’s fair-value line, which grows more slowly than it did in 2016–2020. There is no extra model or tuning: the numbers are counts of what happened before.
When this would be wrong
- Few periods. The 260 days are strongly linked to each other. The real sample is the 8 separate periods, and 8 of 8 completed ones ended higher a year later.
- A changed asset. Ether has gone through fee burning, proof of stake and the move to layer-2 networks. Old patterns may not repeat.
- A short history. About ten years of data, mostly from one long boom and two bear markets.
Prefer to buy steadily? See what steady buying would have returned.
Questions
Will Ethereum go up in the next 12 months?
Nobody knows. From positions like today’s, repeating past moves leaves Ether higher a year later on 72% of comparable days. That is a past frequency, not a promise.
Where could the Ethereum price be in a year?
The middle half of outcomes ends between $1,679 and $9,136 on 14 November 2027; nine in ten fall between $1,176 and $15,121. See also the price predictions.
How is this different from a price prediction?
A prediction gives one number for a date. The outlook shows the spread of outcomes and how often the price ended higher — like a weather forecast that gives a chance of rain instead of promising sunshine.
Model estimates from past behaviour, not a promise. Past behaviour is no guarantee for the future. Not financial advice.