Ethermeter
Ethereum price vs. fair value today
- Bottom
- $818
- price 116% above
- Fair value
- $4,128
- price 57% below
- Top
- $19,238
- price 91% below
Cheaper relative to trend than on 86% of all days since May 2016.
The bar is logarithmic: the middle is fair value, the ends are the bottom and top lines.
Price vs. trend
In the “Log time” view both axes are logarithmic, so a power law shows as a straight line. The dot marks today’s price. Dotted lines mark the London upgrade (EIP-1559 fee burn, Aug 2021) and the Merge to proof of stake (Sep 2022).
12-month outlook
Takes every past day when Ether sat about as far from fair value as it does now (within roughly ±12%), and checks what it did over the next 365 days.
DCA calculator
Uses daily closes, with no fees or slippage. “Value today” uses the current price. For fixed examples by year, see if you had invested in Ethereum.
Forecast
Where the model lines sit on future dates — if the trend keeps holding, which it may not. Each year links to a page with more detail.
| Date | Bottom | Fair value | Top | Fair value vs. today’s price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | $839 | $4,234 | $19,733 | +139% |
| In 12 months 14 Nov 2027 | $989 | $4,992 | $23,264 | +182% |
| End of 2027 | $1,013 | $5,110 | $23,813 | +189% |
| End of 2028 | $1,205 | $6,080 | $28,335 | +244% |
| End of 2029 | $1,415 | $7,142 | $33,282 | +304% |
| End of 2030 | $1,645 | $8,299 | $38,674 | +369% |
| End of 2031 | $1,893 | $9,552 | $44,516 | +440% |
Fair value currently rises about +21% per year. A power law slows down over time: in five years the rate will be +14%, in ten years +11%.
How the model works
Power law
Fit a straight line through the logarithm of every daily close against the logarithm of days since the Ethereum genesis block (30 July 2015). That gives price = 10a · tn. Current parameters: a = -4.487, n = 2.241 (fitted on 3,831 days up to 14 Nov 2026).
Fair value
The power-law line itself — the price Ether would have if it sat exactly on its long-run trend. The parameters are fitted once and frozen in data/model.json, so historic fair values do not move as new days arrive.
Bottom
The trend shifted down until it touches the lowest daily close since 1 January 2017 (the thin first-year market is excluded). Ether has not closed below it since then.
Top
The trend shifted up so that 97.5% of all daily closes lie below it.
Why a power law?
Networks tend to grow fast early and then slow down. A power law captures that: the price keeps rising, but each year by a smaller percentage. Unlike exponential growth, the yearly growth rate falls over time. That makes it a modest baseline rather than a promise of moonshots.
Robustness checks
The exponent depends on the data window. Refitting with data only up to each date gives exponents between 1.82 and 2.44. Long-range forecasts are therefore much less certain than the clean lines suggest.
| Data up to | Exponent n |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2020 | 2.19 |
| 1 Jan 2021 | 1.82 |
| 1 Jan 2022 | 2.39 |
| 1 Jan 2023 | 2.44 |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 2.37 |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 2.38 |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 2.34 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 2.24 |
No separate cycle curve. Adding a repeating market cycle (best fit about 3.4 years) to fair value raises the in-sample fit from R² 0.78 to 0.89. But when trained on older data and tested on later years, it predicts worse than the plain trend, so fair value stays the trend line:
- Trained until 1 Jan 2022: error 0.19 for the plain trend vs. 0.36 with a cycle.
- Trained until 1 Jan 2023: error 0.21 for the plain trend vs. 0.40 with a cycle.
Error = root-mean-square difference in log10 price on the held-out years.
Limitations
- Ether’s history is short (about ten years), and the fit is looser than Bitcoin’s well-known power law: R² is 0.78, and the exponent is much smaller.
- Ether has changed a lot along the way: fee burning in 2021, proof of stake in 2022, and the move of activity to layer-2 networks. Past behaviour may not carry over.
- The bottom line is defined by the single lowest day since 2017. A new low would push it down at the next refit.
- Daily data starts in May 2016 (Coinbase). The first ten months of trading are not included.
Treat this as a way to look at history, not a law of nature.
Past behaviour is no guarantee for the future. Not financial advice.